AI Markets: Tesla-SpaceX merger, Apple/Amazon earnings, chip rebound

Tesla is reportedly weighing a sale of its China business to clear the way for a merger with SpaceX, while Apple and Amazon post quarterly results that get opposite receptions on Wall Street. Meanwhile, chip stocks rebound across the board after announcements from Microsoft and equipment maker Lam Research, erasing part of the week’s losses.

Tesla weighs offloading its China business to clear the way for a SpaceX merger

According to the Wall Street Journal, Tesla executives have been told to prepare a separation of the company’s China operations, a step seen as necessary before any merger with SpaceX. Elon Musk immediately denied it, but Tesla stock still jumped more than 10% during the session.

The key points:

  • On July 30, several US media outlets, citing the Wall Street Journal, reported that Tesla’s advisers are studying three options for the Shanghai plant: a spin-off, a sale or a shutdown.
  • The stated goal: remove the regulatory obstacle that a Chinese manufacturing presence would pose to a merger with SpaceX, a sensitive US defense contractor.
  • Elon Musk called the report “fake news” on X; the Journal itself notes that the timeline remains uncertain and that the plans could change.
  • Tesla stock surged more than 10% in the July 30 session, lifted by the news and by existing speculation about a Tesla-SpaceX tie-up.

Why Shanghai complicates everything

Gigafactory Shanghai is Tesla’s largest plant in the world, with capacity of more than 950,000 vehicles a year. It serves as an export hub for Europe and Asia-Pacific and for a long time accounted for more than half of the company’s global deliveries. The problem: SpaceX runs sensitive programs for the US military (intelligence satellites, military launches), which in principle are hard to square with a structure that has a significant manufacturing footprint in China. According to the Journal, Tesla is considering creating a separate sales entity to handle exports from Shanghai, setting up separate IT systems, and restricting Chinese employees’ access to the group’s other units.

What’s still speculation, and what no longer is

This didn’t come out of nowhere: prediction markets were already giving a Tesla-SpaceX merger by May 2027 odds close to 50%, and some analysts had built a buyout scenario into their models. What’s new today is the first sign of concrete operational preparation on Tesla’s side — even if Musk’s denial and the lack of a firm timeline are reminders that nothing is settled. No bank or regulator has confirmed any merger plan, and such a deal would raise major governance questions, starting with the fact that Musk runs both companies.

Access for a European investor: neither Tesla nor SpaceX (SPCX) is eligible for the PEA, since both are listed on the Nasdaq. They remain accessible through a standard securities account or via UCITS-domiciled US equity or tech ETFs, where they make up only a limited fraction of the portfolio.

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Amazon: the giant AI bet starts paying off, and capex climbs again

On July 30, Amazon reported quarterly results that beat expectations, driven by a spectacular acceleration at its AWS cloud business. The company used the moment to raise its already massive 2026 capital spending budget once again.

The key points:

  • Second-quarter revenue of $200.6 billion (up 20% year over year), above the $196.5 billion consensus; earnings per share of $5.75.
  • AWS, the cloud division, grew 37% year over year to $42.2 billion in revenue, its fastest growth in roughly four years, beating analyst expectations ($40.5 billion).
  • Amazon raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to about $220 billion, up from the $200 billion announced earlier, because of rising memory prices; CEO Andy Jassy warned that even that level will “still” not be enough to meet all the demand in 2026 and 2027.
  • The in-house Trainium chips and the AI business each top $25 billion in annualized revenue; the stock jumped about 9.5% after hours.

Why the market cheers Amazon while it punishes Apple

Same evening, two reports, two opposite reactions. Apple slipped despite numbers above expectations (see our dedicated analysis), dragged down by guidance seen as weak. Amazon, on the other hand, rose sharply: its massive data center spending is visibly starting to turn into concrete cloud growth, proof that the company’s AI bets are “paying off,” at least for now in investors’ eyes. Caution is still warranted: the company generated negative free cash flow of $7.6 billion over the twelve months ending in June, with $54.2 billion spent on data centers and servers alone this quarter. That level of capital intensity assumes AI demand keeps up at the same pace.

What to watch next

The coming quarters will show whether the $220 billion figure holds, whether demand for Trainium (the in-house alternative to Nvidia) is confirmed, and whether rising memory prices eat into the margins of future data centers. It’s also a signal worth watching for other hyperscalers already under pressure over their capex policies, such as Microsoft or Meta.

Access for a European investor: Amazon (Nasdaq) is not eligible for the PEA. It remains accessible through a standard securities account or via UCITS-domiciled US equity or tech ETFs.

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Chip stocks rebound across the board after Microsoft and Lam Research

After a tough week marked by AI bubble fears and Chinese competition, semiconductor stocks had their best session in months on July 30, lifted by results from Microsoft and equipment maker Lam Research.

The key points:

  • The iShares Semiconductor sector ETF (SOXX) jumped more than 8% in the session; the Nasdaq gained 2.78% and the S&P 500 1.66%.
  • Lam Research, which makes the machines used to etch and deposit the layers of chips, reported record quarterly revenue of $6.72 billion (up 30% year over year) and earnings per share of $1.82 versus $1.68 expected; its forecast for the next quarter ($8.1 billion) beats consensus by about 13.6%, a gap seen as rare in this sector.
  • Microsoft jumped about 16% after confirming an acceleration at Azure; the ripple effect lifted AMD (+13%), Micron (+18%), SanDisk (+26%) and Intel (+11%).
  • The session erased a good chunk of the week’s losses, after the semiconductor index had shed about $1 trillion in combined market value amid worries tied to the Chinese model Kimi K3, which is cheaper to produce.

A signal from equipment, not from the chips themselves

It wasn’t an AI chipmaker that sparked the rebound, but a supplier of the machines used to make those chips: an indirect but useful signal about upcoming investment by foundries like TSMC, Samsung or Intel. Lam Research CEO Tim Archer described AI demand as “broad and widespread,” with advanced packaging revenue expected to rise more than 50% in calendar 2026. Several analyst firms raised their price targets on the stock in the wake of the report, without guaranteeing that trajectory.

A rebound that doesn’t settle the bubble debate

This rebound doesn’t put to rest the “super-cycle” versus “AI bubble” debate that has gripped the sector for several weeks: it simply shows that equipment demand remains solid, not that concerns about the pace of hyperscaler spending have gone away. The next quarters from TSMC, Nvidia and the other foundries will be the real test.

Access for a European investor: most of these stocks are listed in the United States and are not eligible for the PEA. They remain accessible via UCITS-domiciled semiconductor or tech ETFs, with sector volatility to keep in mind.

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Apple beats consensus but stumbles in its first big test since hitting $5 trillion

Tim Cook’s last quarter as CEO, results above expectations on paper: Apple had everything it needed to reassure investors on July 30. Yet the stock fell more than 6% after hours, amid guidance seen as disappointing.

The key points:

  • Fiscal third-quarter revenue (ended in late June) of $109.4 billion (up 16% year over year), above the consensus of about $108.8 billion; diluted earnings per share of $2.02 (up 29%), including $0.11 tied to tariff refunds; gross margin of 50.1%.
  • iPhone, Mac and Services each set a record for a June quarter, driven by a 22% rise in iPhone sales.
  • Despite this “beat,” the stock fell more than 6% after hours: the guidance cites “supply constraints,” and both Services revenue ($30.74 billion) and China revenue ($18.8 billion) fell short of analyst expectations.
  • It’s Tim Cook’s last quarter at the helm of Apple before John Ternus takes over on September 1; a new Siri, built with Google’s Gemini technology, is expected in September alongside the new iPhones.

The “anti-capex safe haven” test falls flat

In late July, Apple briefly overtook Nvidia as the world’s most valuable company and crossed $5 trillion, as some investors moved out of the AI capex giants into a stock seen as less exposed to the data center race. These results were the first real test of that thesis. The verdict is mixed: Apple’s market cap fell back below $5 trillion, to around $4.97 trillion based on the day’s prices, and part of the quarter’s “beat” comes from a one-time effect (the tariff refunds), not just underlying demand.

The real stakes are in September, not this quarter

The real moment to judge Apple’s place in the AI race remains the launch of the new Siri and the next iPhones, scheduled for September — a key moment to show the company hasn’t fallen behind in generative AI, a year after repeated criticism on that front.

Access for a European investor: Apple (Nasdaq) is not eligible for the PEA. It remains accessible through a standard securities account or via UCITS-domiciled US equity or tech ETFs.

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SpaceX: a new $1.6 billion military contract ahead of its first public earnings

Just days before its very first quarterly report as a public company, SpaceX keeps racking up government contracts. August 4 will be the real test for a stock that has already lost nearly half its value since its June peak.

The key points:

  • On July 29, the US Space Force awarded SpaceX two orders totaling $1.6 billion for 18 Falcon 9 launches of military “sensing and targeting” satellites through the end of 2027, from Vandenberg base.
  • It’s SpaceX’s third Space Force contract of the year, bringing the 2026 total above $8 billion; the two-month signing timeline was described as “unprecedented” for this kind of public procurement, which is usually very slow.
  • SpaceX will publish its very first public quarterly report on August 4 (second-quarter 2026 results), with consensus at about $6.9 billion in revenue (up 47% quarter over quarter) and an expected loss of $0.28 per share.
  • The report also triggers the unlocking of about $116 billion in shares held by pre-IPO investors and employees, which until now could not be traded.

Why August 4 is a high-risk deadline

SpaceX stock (SPCX) has lost nearly half its value since its mid-June peak, amid profit-taking and worries about upcoming deadlines. A majority of analysts covering the stock still rate it a buy, with a median price target well above the current price — a figure that remains analysts’ opinion, not a guarantee. Strong results and clear guidance could absorb the influx of newly tradable shares from the August 4 unlock; disappointing results, on the other hand, would amplify the downward pressure already at work since late July. Investors will be watching Starlink profitability, Falcon 9 launch margins, and AI infrastructure spending tied to the integration of xAI in particular.

The European investor angle

This new military contract strengthens the narrative of a SpaceX less dependent on Starlink and commercial launches alone, but it remains a one-off event, not a guarantee of future results. SPCX is still not available in the PEA (standard securities account only), and its weight remains limited in the major UCITS US equity ETFs.

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Edition prepared by our monitoring agent (data and sources as of Friday, July 31, 2026), reviewed in line with our editorial policy. General information, not investment advice: investing involves a risk of capital loss.