AI Markets: Anthropic eyes $2 trillion, OpenAI tops $40 billion in revenue

Anthropic and OpenAI are trading blows over valuations and executive departures ahead of their respective IPOs, while Elon Musk finally reveals his actual stake in SpaceX. Meanwhile, the fight over US AI data centers is moving from picket signs to the courtroom, and Michael Burry is doubling down on his bearish bets.

Anthropic targets $2 trillion for its stock market debut

Six Anthropic investors are now floating a valuation above $2 trillion for the IPO targeted for October, according to the Financial Times — double the funding round closed just a few weeks ago. The company’s leadership, for its part, hasn’t set any numerical target.

Key points:

  • The Financial Times reported on August 13 that Anthropic investors are discussing an IPO valuation above $2 trillion, which would beat the current record held by SpaceX ($1.77 trillion at its June listing).
  • Anthropic’s leadership “has not set a valuation target, even internally,” the FT notes: this is an investor expectation, not an official announcement.
  • The same day, Bloomberg reported that Anthropic is said to be in talks to buy Israeli startup Decart for about $6 billion — its biggest potential acquisition to date.
  • On CNBC, investor Steve Eisman (“The Big Short”) warned that Anthropic and OpenAI, which together reportedly capture about 70% of AI-related revenue at the cloud giants, are the “weak link” in the AI story if either one stumbles.

A valuation that assumes uninterrupted growth

According to investors cited by the FT, Anthropic is posting revenue growth of around 800% year over year, which in their view justifies a high multiple: one of them mentions as much as 30 times revenue, or nearly $3 trillion in absolute terms. Those same backers expect an annualized revenue run rate of $100 billion to $120 billion by the end of 2026, compared with about $47 billion (unaudited) today. For a European investor, the mechanics are the same as for SpaceX or a future publicly traded OpenAI: Anthropic’s likely New York listing won’t be eligible for a PEA, and will only be accessible through a regular securities account or, indirectly, through UCITS global tech equity ETFs.

A $6 billion acquisition and a first sign of skepticism

Anthropic is reportedly negotiating to buy Decart, a young Israeli startup specializing in “world models” (simulating physical environments) and in cutting the cost of AI compute, which was valued at $4 billion last May — a premium of roughly 50% if the $6 billion deal is confirmed. Anthropic’s reported goal: secure more compute capacity as demand outstrips supply. In Korea, SK Telecom shares jumped nearly 9% on August 14 amid the “buzz” around the $2 trillion valuation — the carrier invested $100 million in Anthropic in 2023 (a stake now diluted to about 0.3%) and joined its July funding round. But not every signal points up: Steve Eisman’s warning is a reminder that none of these numbers has been publicly audited yet, and that a stumble at either of the two big AI labs (low-cost Chinese competition, a price war) could weaken the entire chain of cloud revenue that depends on them.

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OpenAI tops $40 billion in annualized revenue but loses two executives in one week

OpenAI has reportedly doubled its annualized revenue run rate in just over six months, according to Bloomberg, at the very moment two senior executives walked out back to back. In the background, Sam Altman is said to be holding firm on a $1 trillion valuation floor for the IPO, while SoftBank races against a 2027 repayment deadline.

Key points:

  • Bloomberg reported on August 13 that OpenAI has passed a $40 billion annualized revenue run rate, up from about $20 billion at the end of 2025 — a doubling in eight months, according to an internal memo from president Greg Brockman.
  • OpenAI hasn’t publicly confirmed the figure; for comparison, Anthropic claimed a $47 billion run rate in May, but the calculation methods differ too much to compare the two companies directly, Bloomberg notes.
  • Denise Dresser, chief revenue officer for just eight months, left the company on August 13 — the second senior executive departure in three days, after chief operating officer Brad Lightcap (August 11).
  • According to the Motley Fool, Sam Altman reportedly refuses an IPO below a $1 trillion valuation, while SoftBank has to repay a $40 billion loan by March 2027.

Growth is accelerating, but executives are heading out

According to Bloomberg, OpenAI’s month-over-month revenue growth topped 20% in July, pushing the annualized run rate above $40 billion — driven by subscriptions, nascent advertising, the Codex coding agent and the ChatGPT Work enterprise offering. But the company is losing its commercial compass at the same time: Denise Dresser, who joined in December 2025 from Slack (and Salesforce before that) to become OpenAI’s very first chief revenue officer, is leaving after just eight months, replaced by Dali Rajic (former president of Wiz). Her exit comes two days after that of Brad Lightcap, chief operating officer for eight years. OpenAI praised Dresser’s work without detailing the reasons for her departure.

SoftBank against the clock, and a figure that undercuts the enterprise narrative

According to the Motley Fool, Sam Altman has reportedly let it be known that he won’t take OpenAI public below a $1 trillion valuation — versus $852 billion currently, set in the March fundraise. The problem: SoftBank, a major OpenAI shareholder, is carrying a $40 billion unsecured bridge loan that matures on March 25, 2027, taken out precisely to fund its stake until the listing. The longer the IPO is delayed, or the more it disappoints, the more exposed SoftBank becomes — a risk the Motley Fool also ties to the stakes held by Microsoft (about 27% of the equity) and Nvidia (about $30 billion committed), neither of which has commented. Another sour note for the “AI productivity in the enterprise” narrative OpenAI needs to sell to its future shareholders: its own 69-page study, published August 11, concludes there is “no significant association” between ChatGPT use and revenue per employee at client companies, once other factors are controlled for.

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SpaceX: Musk reveals his actual stake, Starlink flexes its geopolitical muscle

A regulatory filing confirms that Elon Musk owns 48.4% of SpaceX’s economic equity, worth close to $900 billion at market value — but what really matters is his control of the voting rights. The same weekend, a lightning-fast standoff with Poland highlighted Starlink’s geopolitical weight for Ukraine.

Key points:

  • According to a document filed with the US regulator (Schedule 13G) on August 13, Elon Musk holds 6.42 billion SpaceX shares, or 48.4% of the equity on a share-equivalent basis, as of June 30.
  • Some of those securities (restricted stock and options) remain subject to performance conditions that he himself describes as “extremely good” for the company — a mechanism reminiscent of his pay packages at Tesla.
  • Musk reportedly retains more than 82% of the voting rights thanks to SpaceX’s dual-class share structure — the most significant data point for a minority shareholder.
  • On August 13, SpaceX reversed course after briefly excluding Poland from its Starlink roaming zone, a move that threatened the network’s access for Ukraine.

A 48% shareholder, but the undisputed boss

The filing, a “Schedule 13G” form reserved for passive investments, puts Musk’s stake at 6.42 billion shares as of June 30 — about $900 billion at the current share price, in simple market value terms and not as a share of SpaceX’s total market cap. Part of that total (restricted stock, options) remains tied to performance targets that Musk himself described on social media as “extremely good results” for the company, though the regulatory filing doesn’t spell out the specific thresholds. More telling for an investor: thanks to SpaceX’s dual-class share structure, Musk reportedly controls more than 82% of the voting rights, well beyond his economic weight. SPCX shares fell 3.3% on August 13, but no serious outlet directly links the drop to the filing: it came instead after two price target cuts (Piper Sandler, RBC) and ahead of a new unlock of 319 million shares on August 20, on top of the 911 million already released in early August.

When Starlink becomes a diplomatic lever

The same weekend, SpaceX quietly removed Poland from its Starlink roaming zone in Europe (about thirty countries), with no public explanation. Yet Warsaw funds about half of the 42,000 Starlink terminals used in Ukraine for front-line communications. Poland’s foreign minister threatened on X to “reconsider” the $50 million annual payment made to SpaceX; the company backtracked as early as August 13, citing a possible “error.” The episode illustrates the risk, for an investor, of depending on infrastructure whose operational decisions remain at the discretion of a controlling shareholder. On the more institutional front, SpaceX and Northrop Grumman also completed a first series of ground tests on August 11 for the US “Golden Dome” missile defense program — a technical milestone, not yet a test in orbital conditions — while SpaceX contracts already tied to the program total close to $8 billion.

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AI data centers: local opposition moves from picket signs to the courtroom

Two concrete cases, in Missouri and New Jersey, show that opposition to AI data centers is no longer limited to polls and political speeches. Both target projects tied to Nebius, coming right after quarterly results that sent its stock up 28%.

Key points:

  • In Missouri, a group of residents (“Independence GUARD Alliance”) filed a 52-page lawsuit on August 12 against the city of Independence and a Nebius subsidiary, seeking to block a data center that could reach 1.2 GW.
  • The “$150 billion” figure sometimes cited for the project actually corresponds to the face value of municipal tax bonds, not the real cost of the data center; the actual tax benefit is estimated at about $6.6 billion.
  • In New Jersey, the city of Vineland issued two stop-work orders in early August against a Nebius-linked construction site (300 MW), over installations made without permits.
  • Both cases surfaced 24 to 72 hours after Nebius released sharply higher quarterly results on August 12 (revenue up 454% year over year), which sent the stock up 28% in a single session.

Two states, two methods, one target

In Jackson County (Missouri), the residents’ group “Independence GUARD Alliance” accuses the city of Independence of rezoning the land without informing residents and of signing eight nondisclosure agreements to negotiate the energy deal in secret, and is seeking an injunction to halt construction. The project, backed by a subsidiary of Nebius (the Nasdaq-listed “neocloud”), already broke ground in April. The “$150 billion” figure repeated by several outlets doesn’t reflect the cost of the data center: it’s the face value of industrial development bonds, a Missouri tax mechanism that exempts the project from taxes; the actual tax benefit, calculated in March, is around $6.6 billion. In New Jersey, Vineland issued two stop-work orders (August 6 and 10) against a 300 MW site being built by DataOne on behalf of Nebius, as part of a $17 billion deal between Nebius and Microsoft — the stated reason: a liquefied natural gas tank and fuel cells installed without permits, punishable by a $2,000 fine per day of violation.

Litigation is spreading, right as the good results roll in

Both cases come in the days following Nebius’s August 12 release of very strong quarterly results (revenue up 454% year over year, stock up 28% on the day) — a sign that commercial traction and local opposition are now advancing in parallel. The phenomenon goes beyond Nebius: in Ohio, a group went to court after a city refused to validate a citizens’ petition seeking a local referendum. For an investor, the signal is clear: local regulatory risk, until now mostly political (moratoriums, polls), is now turning into lawsuits and actual construction halts, capable of delaying projects that are already financed and leased at fixed prices to major cloud customers.

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Michael Burry doubles down on bearish AI bets — but no longer through the SEC

The investor made famous by “The Big Short” has added to his bearish positions on chips and the Nasdaq, according to his letter to subscribers. A sign of the times: since late 2025, he no longer discloses these moves through an official SEC filing, but through his own paid newsletter.

Key points:

  • Michael Burry deregistered his fund Scion Asset Management with the SEC in November 2025; his positions are therefore no longer published through the usual quarterly “13F” forms, but through his paid Substack newsletter.
  • According to his latest updates, he rolled his puts on the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) out to a June 2027 expiration, a position that now reportedly represents about 6% of his portfolio.
  • He added to his short position on Micron as the stock approached $1,000, and kept his puts on Nvidia and Palantir, while closing out his bearish bet on Tesla after what he called “substantial” gains.
  • A Reuters/Hazeltree report confirms this skepticism isn’t isolated: hedge funds broadly increased their short positions on Super Micro Computer, CoreWeave and Nebius in July, and boosted their shorts on Nvidia.

Bets on display, but no obligation to disclose them

Since Scion Asset Management voluntarily withdrew from the SEC register in November 2025, Michael Burry is no longer required to publish his positions quarterly via the “13F” form that financial journalists traditionally track. His recent moves, widely covered by the US press in mid-August, actually come from his paid newsletter “Cassandra Unchained” — an important nuance, since he chooses what he discloses and when. According to those posts, he rolled his puts on the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) to a later expiration (June 2027, with higher strike prices), a position that now reportedly makes up about 6% of his portfolio and replaces a previous bearish bet on the SOXX semiconductor index. He also added to his Micron short at around $934 per share, as the stock flirted with $1,000, while saying he had closed out his short position on Tesla after “substantial” gains.

Skepticism that goes beyond Burry

Burry himself sums up his maneuver soberly: “reducing gross exposure and raising cash, while keeping the bearish bias.” In early August, he raised the possibility of being “near a major top” and of a “1987-style” crash, while acknowledging that new market records could still attract fresh capital — a caution that contrasts with the crash-prophet image sometimes attached to him. He’s not alone: according to data from provider Hazeltree reported by Reuters, hedge funds broadly increased their short positions on Super Micro Computer, CoreWeave and Nebius in July, while trimming their long positions on Nvidia in favor of bearish bets on the same stock — against the backdrop of a roughly 21% drop in the SOXX semiconductor index in a month. Enough to fuel the already open debate over the sustainability of AI infrastructure financing, though none of these signals settles the question one way or the other.

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Edition prepared by our monitoring agent (data and sources as of Friday, August 14, 2026), reviewed in line with our editorial policy. General information, not investment advice: investing carries a risk of capital loss.