AI Markets: SpaceX makes money, Tesla and Anthropic

SpaceX posts its first profit and Elon Musk backs the idea of a merger with Tesla. Anthropic reveals a huge loss, mostly on paper, ahead of its IPO.

SpaceX: first profit as a public company, AI overtakes Starlink

SpaceX reported its third-quarter results Tuesday evening. For the first time since its IPO, the company is in the black. And its AI business has become its biggest source of revenue.

Key points:

  • Revenue of $14.6 billion (+161% year over year), versus roughly $12.7 billion expected by analysts.
  • Net income of $4.4 billion, versus a loss of $1.1 billion a year earlier.
  • The “Super Intelligence” (AI) segment brings in $7.6 billion and overtakes Starlink ($5.2 billion, +69%).
  • Capital spending for the quarter hits $19.6 billion, $16.4 billion of it for AI.

Net income that doesn’t tell the whole story

The $4.4 billion in net income looks impressive, but it doesn’t come from operations alone. According to Basenor and 1023 Jack, operating income came in at $2.8 billion: the rest comes from financial income, other revenue and a tax benefit. When you’re reading a company that invests this heavily, that gap is what you need to watch. On the AI side, the segment’s operating income was $431 million, versus a $1.7 billion loss a year earlier (Euronews/AFP).

Starlink, for its part, has 13.6 million consumer subscribers. But average monthly revenue per subscriber slipped to $69 (from $83), a sign that growth is also coming from cheaper plans.

Compute is scarce

On the analyst call, Elon Musk said SpaceX could rent out its computing power “several times over” and that the shortage would last for years (Benzinga). The company reportedly tried to shift some of its inference workloads to other clouds, but couldn’t find any available Nvidia GB300 chips, Google TPUs or Amazon Trainium. Capacity has reached 1.7 GW, up from 0.6 GW a year earlier, with a target of 2.5 to 3 GW by the end of 2026. The goal of an additional 10 GW in 2027 is still an executive’s statement, not a guarantee. Management expects $35 to $40 billion in capital spending in the fourth quarter.

For the chip supply chain, the signal is clear: a major buyer says it can’t get enough supply. For European investors, remember that SpaceX (SPCX) isn’t eligible for the PEA. Access goes through a regular securities account or through ETFs that hold the stock, such as those tracking the Nasdaq-100.

The stock closed at $147.79 ahead of the results, then gained about 8% after hours, to $159.79 (Benzinga). It’s still below its June peak ($225.64).

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Tesla and SpaceX: two special committees are reviewing a merger

The rumor is turning into an official file. On SpaceX’s earnings call, Elon Musk said he would support a combination with Tesla. He called it “a good idea.”

Key points:

  • Special committees of independent directors exist at both Tesla and SpaceX (Euronews/AFP, Simply Wall St).
  • Musk says he can’t take part in them because of a conflict of interest.
  • No terms have been set: no structure, no exchange ratio, no price.
  • A deal would need a majority of all Tesla shares, not just of the votes cast.

What has changed since our last editions

Until now, the merger was a hypothesis floated by analysts. In October, Barclays raised the possibility of an announcement before Tesla’s annual meeting. We had also noted that prediction markets were lowering their odds. This time, the CEO is publicly confirming that talks and committees exist. He described the matter as “tap dancing through a minefield.” He also warned that it would be wrong to treat the merger as a done deal.

He highlights possible synergies: AI software, chip design, robotics and computing in space. These are an executive’s talking points, not hard numbers.

The real lock: governance

Musk owned 48.4% of SpaceX as of June 30 and controls more than 82% of the voting rights thanks to super-voting shares. He owns about 20% of Tesla. He himself called the requirement of a majority of all Tesla shares a “pretty high” hurdle. Tesla’s annual meeting is scheduled for December 3, according to Simply Wall St, but no date has been announced for a merger vote.

For a European shareholder, two things matter. Neither Tesla nor SpaceX is eligible for the PEA. And a potential merger would change the nature of the stock: a carmaker combined with a rocket launcher and an AI compute provider.

Nothing is signed and nothing is filed. This is a review by committees, not an offer.

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Anthropic: an $80.7 billion first-half loss, mostly on paper

Anthropic’s draft IPO filing, seen by the Wall Street Journal, reveals a net loss of $80.7 billion for the first six months of 2026. The figure is spectacular, but what kind of loss it is matters more than its size.

Key points:

  • Net loss of $80.7 billion in H1 2026, about $72 billion of it tied to accounting adjustments on convertible securities and other financial instruments.
  • Revenue of $16.3 billion, versus $1.1 billion a year earlier.
  • Compute and infrastructure spending: nearly $9 billion for the half, more than the $7.3 billion for all of 2025.
  • Target IPO valuation: about $2 trillion (according to press reports, not an Anthropic announcement).

Why the loss is mostly “on paper”

According to the WSJ, as relayed by ANI, the loss mainly reflects accounting entries tied to the value of convertible securities. When the company’s value rises, that debt “costs” more on the books, with no immediate cash going out the door. The draft gives no cash burn figure, so the loss shouldn’t be read as money spent. According to Reuters, the same mechanism already explained much of the $42 billion loss in 2025.

Revenue, on the other hand, is real: it’s accelerating, but roughly a fifth of it comes from just two customers.

The real issue: the compute bill

Infrastructure commitments could top $600 billion, with up to $150 billion more in contracts under discussion. That includes about $450 billion in cloud contracts over 7 to 10 years, largely non-cancelable: $111 billion with Google Cloud, $110 billion with AWS, $31 billion with Microsoft. On top of that come up to $86 billion in Nvidia chip rentals through Nscale and Lambda, and more than $160 billion in Google chips through Broadcom. These are long-term commitments, some of which have yet to be signed.

For the chip and cloud supply chain, this order book is a tailwind. For a future shareholder, it’s a risk: if revenue doesn’t keep up, these contracts weigh heavily. The IPO could happen as early as mid-November, according to press reports. The figures come from a confidential draft and haven’t been verified in a public document.

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OpenAI speeds up its $30 billion raise ahead of Anthropic’s IPO

OpenAI wants to lock in fresh cash before its rival Anthropic goes public. According to Reuters, the company is seeking about $30 billion at a valuation above $1.4 trillion.

Key points:

  • Target raise: about $30 billion, at a valuation of more than $1.4 trillion (versus $852 billion in March).
  • SoftBank, MGX (Abu Dhabi) and other existing shareholders are negotiating; nothing is finalized.
  • OpenAI is aiming for an IPO in 2027; Sam Altman has ruled out 2026.
  • Anthropic is reportedly targeting a listing as early as mid-November.

What changes since our last editions

The amount and the valuation had already been circulating since late September (Bloomberg). What’s new, reported by Reuters on October 19, is the timing: OpenAI is reportedly looking to close the round before Anthropic lists. Some investors see it as a way to lock up capital that would otherwise flow into the rival’s IPO. That reading is investors’ interpretation, not OpenAI’s stated position.

Why the rush

Two reasons are cited. First, funding enormous infrastructure commitments. Second, shoring up the balance sheet in case IPO markets sour and delay the listing planned for next year. OpenAI reportedly filed confidentially in June.

The contrast is stark: Anthropic has released half-year figures through its draft filing (see our analysis today), while OpenAI remains private. The two don’t book revenue the same way, because of the shares paid back to cloud partners, so revenue comparisons are tricky.

For a European investor, none of these companies can be bought directly today. Their listings would go through the US market, outside the PEA.

A raise of this size would still be a private round: it gives the general public no access.

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Unitree: the Chinese humanoid robot maker bounces back from its low

Shares of Unitree, the Shanghai-listed Chinese humanoid robot maker, rebounded sharply on October 19, just days after hitting their lowest level since the IPO.

Key points:

  • On October 19, the stock gained 16.15% to 495.92 yuan (Humanoids Daily).
  • On October 15, it had closed at 405.10 yuan, its lowest since listing (Tonghuashun via BigGo).
  • Market cap of about 190 billion yuan, or roughly $28.6 billion.
  • A partner conference is scheduled in Hangzhou on October 22.

A stock still far from its highs

Unitree debuted on Shanghai’s STAR Market on August 19, with an IPO price of 150.8 yuan. On day one, the stock hit 1,100 yuan intraday, more than seven times the IPO price (SCMP, Caixin). It then lost about half of its peak value. The October 15 low is still about 2.7 times the IPO price, but roughly 63% below the peak.

The October 19 rebound is tied to a policy signal: Beijing is backing the arrival of embodied AI (robots powered by AI) in everyday retail, according to Humanoids Daily. Other stocks in the sector also climbed, some up to the daily limit.

What the fundamentals say

In 2025, Unitree posted 1.70 billion yuan in revenue (about $252 million), versus 393 million yuan in 2024. It delivered more than 5,500 humanoids, which account for 52% of sales (Caixin, Yicai). The company is profitable, but its valuation multiples remain very high, fueling debate about a possible bubble (SCMP).

For European investors, this stock trades in mainland China: direct access is limited, and it doesn’t fit in a PEA. UCITS robotics ETFs that include it remain an option to check case by case.

October 22 will shed some light on products and partners. Until commercial contracts confirm demand, the stock will mostly ride market sentiment and public policy announcements.

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Edition prepared by our monitoring agent (data and sources as of Wednesday, October 21, 2026), reviewed in line with our editorial policy. General information, not investment advice: investing carries a risk of capital loss.