AI Markets: SpaceX plunges, TSMC/ASML soar, Mistral targets €20 billion

Today’s paradox: the chip supply chain’s fundamentals have never been stronger, yet markets are skeptical. Between SpaceX’s post-IPO slide, Mistral AI’s ambitions and the doubts hanging over AI capex, here’s a roundup of what matters for European investors.

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SpaceX is down 45% from its post-IPO peak: is the party over?

The star of the biggest IPO in history, SpaceX (SPCX) has watched its stock melt since its June high, reviving the debate over what it really is: rocket company or data center? For European investors, the episode is mostly a reminder that they have almost no simple way to buy this kind of stock.

Key takeaways:

  • The stock closed at $124 on July 17, 8% below its $135 IPO price and 45% below its $225 high, reached in mid-June.
  • SpaceX, which went public on June 12 in the biggest IPO in history, hit an intraday high of $225.64 on June 16, valuing the company at $2.66 trillion, or 142 times its 2025 revenue.
  • Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) keeps buying the dip: her fund bought another $16.7 million of SPCX shares while the stock traded below its IPO price, bringing her recent purchases to more than $50 million, through four ARK funds including ARKK, ARKW and ARKX.
  • A “wall of supply” is approaching: 20% of the shares held by employees and pre-IPO investors will unlock on the second trading day after Q2 results are released, with another 10% possible if the stock has closed above $175.50 on at least five of the previous ten days.

Rocket, AI or both?

The “SpaceX = AI company” narrative was built around Colossus, the computing center of its subsidiary xAI (renamed SpaceXAI). In May, SpaceX agreed to give Anthropic access to about 325,000 Nvidia GPUs for $1.25 billion a month, then signed a similar deal with Google for about 110,000 GPUs at $920 million a month — two contracts that together could generate $26 billion a year, more than SpaceX’s entire 2025 revenue. A third customer, Reflection AI, rounds out the picture. The problem: most of SpaceX’s money still comes from Starlink and launches, with $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, while the AI segment posted an operating loss of about $6.4 billion. In other words, AI gets investors dreaming but still drags down the books — a classic case of “growth that costs a lot before it pays off.”

On the trading side, the mood has grown even tenser: short sellers have racked up about $4 billion in paper gains, with about 30% of the roughly 640 million freely tradable shares borrowed by investors betting on a further drop. Elon Musk fired back on X, saying that “the survival probability of firms that maintain a significant short position on SpaceX over time is very low” — more an act of intimidation than a quantified forecast.

For European investors: the party never really started

Beyond the American market psychodrama, the real issue for a French saver lies elsewhere: SPCX is listed on the Nasdaq, under US law, outside the PEA and outside the UCITS format. No regulated European tracker currently replicates the stock with simple direct access — you have to go through a standard brokerage account, with its own tax treatment and currency conversion fees. The 45% drop thus illustrates a double risk for anyone looking for exposure from Europe: the extreme volatility of a giant, still-unprofitable IPO, and the lack of a domestic vehicle to hold it in a tax-advantaged account. The next date to watch: the first quarterly results released as a public company, expected in early August, which could settle — at least temporarily — the debate between AI bubble and AI gem.

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TSMC and ASML post record results… and AI stocks fall anyway

The two pillars of the AI chip supply chain delivered exceptional quarters this week. The result: their stocks fell, a signal worth decoding rather than ignoring.

Key takeaways:

  • TSMC raised its 2026 growth guidance to just over 40%, after record second-quarter net income up 77.4% year over year, beating analyst forecasts.
  • The Taiwanese foundry also raised its 2026 capital spending budget to between $60 billion and $64 billion, and pledged an additional $100 billion for its Arizona fabs.
  • At ASML, every employee worldwide will receive a one-time €20,000 bonus in shares, at a total cost of about €900 million, funded by results described as “exceptional.”
  • Despite these announcements, TSMC fell nearly 7% despite solid results and raised 2026 forecasts, while ASML, despite a wave of analyst price-target hikes, still ended down 2.51%.

Numbers that, on paper, confirm the AI cycle

It’s hard to find fault with the results. TSMC’s net income jumped 77.4% to a record, with gross margin climbing to 67.7%, driven by a dominant position in about 73% of the advanced foundry market. The group’s CEO even cited visibility on AI demand through 2029-2030, according to remarks reported by the financial press. At ASML, second-quarter results beat expectations, prompting a second upward revision of annual sales guidance, to between €43 billion and €45 billion. The employee bonus, a practice already seen at Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC according to several financial outlets, fits this logic of sharing the record profits tied to the AI boom.

Why the market no longer buys it (or wants more)

The real issue isn’t demand, but the price of meeting it. Revenue trends remain robust as the AI boom continues, but a few negatives emerged in the report, notably margin pressure tied to the ramp-up of the 2-nanometer node and overseas expansion. A JPMorgan trader quoted by the press summed up the mood: it’s hard to pin the selloff on any specific reason, other than that the bar has become very high for semiconductors after months of outperformance fueled by AI enthusiasm — an observation shared the day before, when ASML reported.

More broadly, the semiconductor sector has taken further hits in recent days, sliding deeper into bear market territory after a parabolic rally this year. For European investors following these stocks through a brokerage account or a sector ETF (ASML being PEA-eligible, unlike TSMC, which is mostly accessible as an ADR), the message is clear: good numbers are no longer enough, and the market now wants proof that future profitability justifies the colossal investments being made today.

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Mistral AI: the €20 billion plan reshuffling the deck in Europe

The French AI darling is reportedly negotiating a record round that would nearly double its valuation, while building its own data center near Paris. Enough to fuel every fantasy about a future listing, even though no IPO is on the agenda.

Key takeaways:

  • Mistral AI is in talks to raise about €3 billion at a valuation of about €20 billion, according to a report published by Bloomberg, with discussions still at a preliminary stage.
  • Mistral was valued at €11.7 billion in its September 2025 funding round: the valuation would therefore nearly double.
  • ASML Holding is the company’s largest shareholder, having invested €1.3 billion for an 11% stake in last year’s funding round.
  • Mistral AI also announced the closing of a first debt financing of $830 million, to fund the purchase of 13,800 Nvidia chips for its data center in Bruyères-le-Châtel, near Paris.

The tech → markets bridge: why this story matters to European investors

On paper, there’s no such thing as Mistral AI stock: you can’t buy it directly, PEA or not. Mistral AI isn’t publicly listed and its shares don’t trade on traditional financial markets. But the story remains central for two reasons. First, it validates the thesis of a “sovereign European AI” against the American giants: this round would give the Paris-based company the resources it needs to compete in the computing race against its rivals in the United States and China. Second, indirect exposure already exists through listed companies: ASML, its largest shareholder, but also its industrial partners. The company has commercialized its AI services for engineering and industrial manufacturing applications, striking deals with major European industrial companies, including Airbus SE and BMW AG. Betting on ASML today is therefore partly a bet on Mistral’s trajectory, while waiting for a hypothetical listing.

Data center, compute and timing: what still needs confirming

The Bruyères-le-Châtel site illustrates Mistral’s vertical integration strategy. The facility is designed to handle both model training and inference workloads, and should become operational in the second quarter of 2026. Longer term, the project is part of a broader expansion strategy targeting 200 MW of total computing capacity in Europe by 2027.

As for a listing, there’s no rush: in January 2025 at Davos, Arthur Mensch described an IPO as “the plan,” but two months later he walked that back, saying IPO plans weren’t imminent. Nothing has changed on that specific point since: the €3 billion raise, if confirmed, would mainly fund compute, not prepare a prospectus. With talks at an early stage, discussions with investors are still at an early stage and terms could still change, and the valuation could rise depending on investor demand. A story to follow, not to front-run.

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Anthropic is hiring its future investor relations lead: the IPO comes into focus

Anthropic has just opened a director of investor relations position paying up to $600,000 a year. A seemingly trivial HR detail, but one that fits into a countdown to going public that’s already well underway.

Key takeaways:

  • Anthropic is offering a base salary of $425,000 to $600,000 for a director of investor relations role, as the company strengthens its leadership team ahead of a planned IPO, according to Business Insider reporting picked up by Storyboard18.
  • The new director will work alongside Kenneth Dorell, who joined in June as head of investor relations, and will report to Krishna Rao, Anthropic’s CFO. Dorell previously led investor relations at Meta.
  • The company has seen explosive growth this year, with its annualized revenue run rate climbing to $47 billion in May, up from $10 billion a year earlier; the week before, it closed a funding round valuing it at $965 billion.
  • Anthropic already confidentially filed for an IPO with the SEC in early June, a company valued at nearly $1 trillion, with a listing targeted “as early as October 2026” according to several outlets.

A hire that speaks louder than a press release

On paper, hiring an investor relations lead is nothing spectacular. But the job listing gives it away: this director will be responsible for building investor engagement and the company’s investment narrative alongside the head of investor relations, shaping investors’ understanding of Anthropic’s mission, strategy, financial performance and competitive advantages. Translation: preparing the pitch that will be delivered to fund managers and analysts during the roadshow. That’s exactly the kind of hire unicorns make in the 6 to 12 months before listing. Another clue: Anthropic confirmed that its former head of financial strategy and investor relations, Vu Bui, has left the company, a sign the finance team is being reorganized ahead of going public.

The market angle: an IPO wave that’s already raising concerns

This announcement doesn’t come out of nowhere. SpaceX just pulled off the biggest IPO in US history, raising $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation, while Anthropic confidentially filed for an IPO aiming to raise $30 billion at a valuation close to $965 billion. Some market watchers worry about a liquidity-drain effect: according to financial commentator Mark Hulbert, applying an academic research multiplier to the roughly $200 billion these three IPOs are expected to raise, the impact could reach a $1 trillion drop in total market value, a 12-month decline close to 40% according to GMO research. Other analysts are more measured: the IPO wave probably won’t trigger a 40% crash, but it could spark major rotations within tech and AI stocks.

For European retail investors, caution remains in order: a US listing of Anthropic wouldn’t be PEA-eligible, and access would come through a brokerage account or tech ETFs that might add the stock once it joins an index. No listing date has been officially set at this stage — so caution is warranted given the many estimates circulating on social media.

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Oracle downgraded, AI capex under scrutiny: is the bubble really inflating?

Oracle hit a new 52-week low this week, a few days after its credit rating was cut a notch toward “junk.” A strong signal, just days before the kickoff of quarterly earnings from the US tech giants, reviving the debate over a possible AI capex bubble.

Key takeaways:

  • Oracle shares hit a 52-week low of $121.50 on Friday, and now trade about 63% below their peak.
  • On July 9, S&P Global Ratings cut Oracle’s credit rating from BBB to BBB-, leaving it one notch above “junk” status. Moody’s, for its part, assigned a negative outlook, signaling a possible downgrade in the medium term.
  • Oracle spent $55.7 billion on capex in fiscal 2026, generating $32 billion in operating cash flow (+54% year over year), but all of it was consumed, with negative free cash flow of $23.7 billion.
  • Despite this, S&P noted that about half of Oracle’s $638 billion in remaining orders to fulfill comes from a single customer: OpenAI.

The Oracle paradox: record backlog, cash in the red

The Oracle case single-handedly sums up the current tension around AI. On one hand, in fiscal 2026, total revenue reached $67.4 billion (+17% year over year), cloud infrastructure (OCI) revenue jumped 77%, and the backlog (RPO) hit $638 billion, up 363% year over year. Plenty to fuel a narrative of extremely solid AI demand.

On the other, the bill is piling up fast. S&P expects the gap to widen: the agency projects fiscal 2027 capex of $90 billion to $95 billion, with a free cash flow deficit widening to about $42 billion. To fund this wall of investment without falling into speculative grade, Oracle was already carrying nearly $130 billion in debt at the end of fiscal 2026, and after a $5 billion issue of convertible preferred shares in February, the company plans a new $20 billion share issue later this year. A dilution risk the market is starting to price in.

An isolated case or the symptom of a broader bubble?

The timing isn’t trivial: this downgrade comes just before the next wave of hyperscaler earnings. Alphabet is set to kick off Big Tech earnings on July 22, followed by Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple the following week. And the total amount at stake is dizzying: Amazon (~$200 billion), Microsoft (~$190 billion), Alphabet ($175-185 billion) and Meta ($115-135 billion) are set to commit about $725 billion combined to AI infrastructure in 2026, a 77% increase from ~$410 billion in 2025.

So the Oracle case isn’t isolated: the central question each quarterly report will have to settle — converting AI backlogs into real cash — will determine whether we’re seeing a healthy correction or the first cracks in a capex bubble. For European investors following these stocks through UCITS tech or Nasdaq trackers, the focus is less on headline growth than on the trajectory of free cash flow over the coming quarters.

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Humanoid robots: China speeds up, Hyundai hits the brakes, funding rounds pile up

A strike in Korea, a mega-round in China, a robot almost as precise as a human in Beijing: in 48 hours, humanoid robotics news delivered three very different versions of the same industrial revolution.

Key takeaways:

  • At Hyundai, the rollout of Boston Dynamics’ Atlas robots has sparked the world’s first auto strike directly tied to humanoids, with new walkouts planned for July 20 to 22.
  • In China, LimX Dynamics closed a pre-IPO round of nearly $200 million, valuing the startup at $2.21 billion, in a sector where investment more than doubled in the second quarter.
  • Xiaomi reports a 98% success rate for its CyberOne robot on a screw-fastening task at a car plant, up from 90.2% four months earlier.
  • Three speeds, three logics: Korea is negotiating the social terms of automation, China is financing its race to list, and Chinese manufacturers are testing machine reliability in real-world conditions.

South Korea: the strike that (slightly) delays Atlas

Workers ended day and night shifts two hours early from July 13 to 15, 2026, and the union scheduled four-hour stoppages for July 20 to 22 after 15 rounds of wage talks failed. The Hyundai Motor union, which represents more than 39,000 employees, has demanded changes such as switching from hourly to fixed pay, raising the retirement age from 60 to 65, and larger bonuses to offset the impact of automation. Yet the robot in question hasn’t done anything yet: the robot at the center of the dispute, Boston Dynamics’ Atlas, hasn’t been assigned to any task in a Korean plant so far.

The industrial timeline is still far off: the plan, unveiled at an investor session hosted by JPMorgan, calls for deploying more than 25,000 Atlas robots in Hyundai and Kia plants, starting with the Metaplant America plant in Georgia in 2028, which would absorb 83% of the 30,000-unit annual production capacity the group is targeting by then. Notably for markets: Hyundai Motor shares have fallen more than 30% since local media reported last month that the automaker planned to buy out SoftBank’s remaining stake in Boston Dynamics. A useful reminder: the robotics promise isn’t enough to lift a stock if the market doubts the underlying valuation.

China: the race to list speeds up

Meanwhile, Shenzhen is running at full throttle. LimX raised $200 million in a pre-IPO round valuing the company at $2.21 billion, and its founder Will Zhang said going public had become a necessity. Its backers are unusually international: IDG Capital, Apple supplier Lens Technology and Abu Dhabi’s Stone Venture led the deal, alongside GGG (Italy) and Redstone VC (Germany). The company is already preparing its IPO, likely in Hong Kong, and is in a confidential review phase.

It’s not an isolated case: the urgency stems from the fact that China now has well over 100 humanoid companies, and investment in the sector reached 47.09 billion yuan ($6.95 billion) in the second quarter, more than double the first quarter and more than six times last year’s level.

On the industrial side, Xiaomi illustrates how far the technology has matured: Xiaomi’s CyberOne humanoid robot can now install self-tapping nuts with a 98% success rate on a car production line, four months after a first trial at 90.2%, while still missing one part in ten on the most delicate tasks and still requiring human supervision.

The bridge to the markets

For European investors, these three signals show up indirectly in thematic robotics ETFs: pure-play “humanoid” funds such as HUMN or the Themes Humanoid Robotics ETF are listed in the United States, while Chinese exposure mostly goes through Hong Kong vehicles that aren’t PEA-eligible. Broad UCITS funds (wide robotics/AI) often remain the simplest entry point for a brokerage account or a life insurance policy, with the sector volatility that comes with it — none of this information constitutes investment advice.

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Crucial earnings week: Tesla, Alphabet and Intel under the AI microscope

This week, three tech heavyweights face their quarterly earnings exam in a tense climate, between geopolitical shocks and lingering doubts about AI profitability.

Key takeaways:

  • Tesla and Alphabet report on Wednesday, July 22, followed by Intel on Thursday, July 23, in what’s shaping up to be the most closely watched earnings week of the summer.
  • Alphabet, Tesla and Intel together represent well over $5 trillion in combined market capitalization.
  • Last week, the S&P 500 lost 1.55%, the Nasdaq fell 2.9% and the Dow slipped 0.93%, with semiconductor stocks plunging nearly 10%, a sector now more than 20% below the record it set in late June.
  • The United States launched new strikes on Iran on Saturday, a day after an Iranian missile attack killed two American soldiers, reviving fears about energy and market stability.

The AI narrative meets the facts

The strategists’ message is clear: after months of rallying on the promise of artificial intelligence, it’s time for hard numbers. Alphabet and Intel are expected to provide signals that could sway the dominant AI narrative in the market, as investors try to gauge whether companies can meet lofty profit expectations amid geopolitical tensions. For Tesla, attention is on its ability to maintain vehicle margins, develop AI and self-driving, and reach profitability with the Cybercab rollout. For Alphabet, everything will hinge on sustained Google Cloud growth, effective AI monetization across flagship products, and the deployment of aggressive capital spending. Intel, for its part, comes in after a particularly volatile stretch: the stock jumped more than 20% after a strong first quarter before falling sharply in recent weeks amid a broad semiconductor pullback, with investors watching for progress on its data center and AI chip roadmap, notably the Terafab project and recent deals with Google.

Despite the jittery mood, earnings season remains solid on a macro level: of the roughly 50 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, 88% have beaten analyst expectations, according to FactSet.

Why this is a test for European savers

For a European investor exposed through UCITS ETFs tracking the Nasdaq or the S&P 500, these three reports weigh heavily on the short-term performance of a tech portfolio. The expected divergence is telling: investors are gradually shifting their focus from short-term growth to whether AI spending can be sustained beyond 2027, according to UBS strategists. In other words, “confirmation of the AI trade” won’t come down to a quarterly revenue figure, but to the credibility of multi-year infrastructure spending plans — a key factor to watch for anyone holding tech trackers in a PEA or a brokerage account, though this doesn’t constitute a recommendation to reallocate.

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Edition prepared by our monitoring agent (data and sources as of Sunday, July 19, 2026), reviewed in line with our editorial policy. General information, not investment advice: investing carries a risk of capital loss.