SpaceX has wiped out more than $1.2 trillion in market capitalization in a month, squeezed by an imminent lock-up expiration and a satellite offensive from Amazon, while China is hitting Western memory and lithography at the same time. Nvidia keeps turning itself into AI’s giant banker — so much so that Wall Street is already inventing new bets to keep up.

SpaceX wipes out the equivalent of a Tesla in market value as Amazon strikes back with 5,105 satellites

Since its mid-June peak, SpaceX has seen more than $1.2 trillion in market capitalization go up in smoke, roughly Tesla’s entire market value. Two closely spaced deadlines in early August could rattle the stock further, while Amazon is launching a head-on offensive against Starlink.

The key points:

• SPCX fell to $108.66 intraday on Monday, July 27, a new all-time low, before rebounding to close at $113.50 — its 13th down session in the last 16.
• The stock has lost nearly 50% since its intraday record of $225.64 on June 16, three days after the IPO closed on June 12.
• Two dates to watch: its first quarterly results as a public company on August 4, then the lock-up expiration on August 6, which could release about 911.5 million shares (~$116 billion) — nearly four times the number of shares currently tradable.
• On July 27, Amazon asked the FCC for permission to launch 5,105 satellites to connect smartphones directly, combining Kuiper with the assets of Globalstar (acquired for ~$11.6 billion).

The countdown to the lock-up

The timeline is tight: only four days separate SpaceX’s first quarterly report as a public company (August 4) from the lock-up expiration (August 6). The lock-up has so far shielded early shareholders and employees; lifting it could quadruple the number of shares actually tradable, a supply shock investors have dreaded since the IPO. The stakes held by Musk and a small circle of insiders, however, will stay locked until mid-2027. Financially, SpaceX reported 2025 revenue of under $19 billion and is reportedly looking to raise at least $20 billion through its first “investment grade” bond issue, a sign that the group’s funding needs remain considerable.

Amazon fires off its satellite counterattack

Starlink dominates low Earth orbit by a wide margin, with more than 10,000 satellites in service and a direct-to-cell partnership with T-Mobile already up and running. Amazon, which still fields only about 390 Kuiper satellites, has just shifted gears: its July 27 FCC filing targets a combined Kuiper-Globalstar network able to connect phones and connected devices directly, with deployment planned starting in 2028. The stated targets — underserved areas, emergency services, logistics fleets — overlap exactly with the market Starlink is starting to occupy. For a European investor, neither SpaceX nor Amazon is directly eligible for a PEA (U.S. listings); exposure can only come through UCITS-eligible global or tech equity ETFs, where Amazon already carries significant weight and SpaceX is, for now, absent.

Sources:

• SpaceX has now lost the equivalent of a full Tesla in market capitalization
• SpaceX shares hit record low as lock-up concerns weigh
• SpaceX lock-up expiry could release $116 billion worth of shares
• SpaceX snaps 7-day losing streak, sets earnings date that triggers first big share unlock
• Amazon seeks federal approval to launch 5,105 satellites for direct-to-device network
• Amazon Files FCC Application for 5,105-Satellite Constellation to Enable Direct-to-Device Mobile Services

China hits memory and lithography on the same day

Two separate Chinese offensives sent Western and Korean semiconductor giants tumbling on Monday, July 27: the blockbuster stock market debut of memory maker CXMT, and China’s first production of DUV lithography machines.

The key points:

• CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) soared 466% in its debut on Shanghai’s STAR Market on July 27, after raising up to $9.8 billion; its closing valuation (~$488 billion) makes it the largest listed company in China by market cap.
• In its wake, SanDisk fell about 12%, Micron about 5%, and SK Hynix ADRs as much as 8%.
• The same day, ASML lost more than 8% (nearly $44 billion in market value erased) after reports that a Chinese consortium (Huawei, SiCarrier, Shanghai Yuliangsheng) has begun mass production of DUV lithography machines, with deliveries to SMIC planned as early as 2026.
• Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA fell in sympathy (about -5%, -7% and -5%).

CXMT, from second-tier supplier to global heavyweight

With quarterly revenue up more than eightfold year over year (50.8 billion yuan, ~$7.5 billion in the first quarter of 2026, driven by memory demand for AI), CXMT remains the world’s No. 4 DRAM maker with 8% market share, far behind Samsung (36%), SK Hynix (29%) and Micron (24%) — but the gap is closing fast. Apple is reportedly already testing its DRAM chips for devices sold in China, according to the Financial Times, which worries Washington: CXMT is on the U.S. “1260H” list of companies suspected of ties to the Chinese military. This rise extends the story of the $950 billion memory contracts signed in late July by SK Hynix and Samsung (see our July 27 edition): today’s news is no longer demand, but the arrival of a consolidated, already profitable Chinese competitor.

ASML: DUV lithography isn’t EUV, but the market is worried

The new Chinese machines are immersion DUV systems — a technology generation behind EUV lithography, where ASML holds a de facto monopoly that is essential for etching the most advanced chips (below 3 nanometers), notably through High-NA, already covered in our previous editions. The Chinese machines are still considered years behind in yield and reliability. But the mere fact that a domestic supply chain now exists to equip foundries like SMIC changes the perception of long-term risk. For a European investor, ASML remains a rare pure-play exposure directly eligible for a PEA (Amsterdam listing); CXMT, Micron and SK Hynix are not, and are accessible only via UCITS-eligible semiconductor or global tech ETFs.

Sources:

• Chipmaker CXMT’s 466% market debut surge makes it the most valuable China-listed company
• SanDisk Sinks 12%, Micron Drops 5%, SK Hynix Falls 8% as China’s CXMT IPO Rattles Memory Stocks
• ASML Shares Drop After Report of China Producing DUV Chipmaking Tools
• ASML Stock Falls on Reports of Chinese DUV Competition
• Apple begins testing CXMT chips for devices sold in China, FT says

Nvidia, AI’s banker: up to $600 billion in guarantees and leases at stake

Nvidia is no longer content to just sell chips: the company now negotiates a good chunk of the financing for the data centers that will run them itself. Two separate deals, revealed this week, give a sense of the scale.

The key points:

• Nvidia is reportedly discussing a financial guarantee of about $250 billion to allow OpenAI to lease a 10 GW data center campus in Ohio, developed by SB Energy (a SoftBank subsidiary) — a total project that could exceed $500 billion, the largest ever announced.
• Separately, Nvidia is also reportedly negotiating financing for OpenAI’s chip purchases for the site, up to an additional $350 billion.
• According to the Financial Times, Nvidia has also signed, independently of the OpenAI deal, leases worth up to $50 billion on a data center built by Hut 8 in Texas.
• Bloomberg now puts Nvidia’s recent financial commitments to customers and partners at about $750 billion in total — not to be confused with the $750 billion OpenAI is targeting in infrastructure spending by 2030 (see our July 23 edition).

A site steeped in history for an unprecedented project

The campus targeted by OpenAI and SB Energy would occupy about 640 of the 3,700 federal acres of the former Piketon uranium enrichment plant in Ohio, which closed in 2001. A first 800-megawatt phase is targeted for 2028. The reason for Nvidia’s guarantee: OpenAI, still losing money, doesn’t have a sufficient “investment grade” credit rating on its own to carry such a commitment — so Nvidia acts as guarantor. Talks remain at an early stage and could fall through or change, as we already noted in our July 27 edition.

The “circular financing” debate is back

On CNBC, host Jim Cramer compared this mechanism to the telecom equipment makers that financed their own customers’ purchases in the late 1990s, just before the dot-com bubble burst: Nvidia is indirectly guaranteeing the debt that will let OpenAI buy more Nvidia chips. The company already invested $30 billion in OpenAI in March and $10 billion in Anthropic. For now, the market reaction on Nvidia’s own stock remains measured. For a European investor, none of the entities involved (SB Energy, Hut 8, OpenAI) is directly accessible in a PEA; exposure to this story comes almost exclusively through Nvidia, via UCITS-eligible tech or global ETFs.

Sources:

• Nvidia in Talks to Back OpenAI Lease of $500 Billion Data Center
• Nvidia And OpenAI Discussing $500 Billion Data Center—Here’s What We Know
• Nvidia in talks to back OpenAI lease of $500 billion Ohio data center
• Nvidia behind $50 billion lease on Texas data center, FT reports
• Jim Cramer warns AI’s circular financing frenzy echoes the dot-com bubble
• Nvidia’s $750 Billion in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears

Wall Street dreams up new bets on SpaceX and Nvidia, out of Europeans’ reach

Faced with speculative appetite for AI’s star stocks, two U.S. exchange operators are launching new instruments to bet on SpaceX and Nvidia without ever owning a share.

The key points:

• CME Group launched individual stock futures contracts (“single-stock futures”) on Monday, July 27, covering more than 50 large U.S. companies, including Nvidia and SpaceX.
• These contracts are cash-settled on the closing price, in standard (100 shares) or “micro” (10 shares) sizes, and offer leverage without the complexity of options.
• Cboe, for its part, filed with the SEC in early July for binary (“all-or-nothing”) options tied not to share prices but to more than 100 operating metrics from 23 large companies — including Nvidia’s data center revenue and SpaceX’s revenue.
• These launches come as SpaceX, listed since June 12, already accounts for a large share of Wall Street’s speculative volume.

A bet without owning the stock

Unlike options, CME futures don’t lose value as time passes and aren’t affected by changes in implied volatility — a product designed for active traders who want to bet, up or down, on stocks like Nvidia or SpaceX with a smaller upfront stake. Cboe’s project goes further: it would mean betting directly on a business metric (for example, Nvidia’s data center revenue), without even going through the share price. The filing is still subject to SEC approval.

U.S. tools, not PEA products

These futures and binary options are derivatives regulated in the United States and generally not marketed to European retail investors: MiFID II/PRIIPs rules require a key information document (KID) for any complex derivative, which effectively rules out most retail brokers in Europe. For a European investor following these two stories, the gap is clear: Nvidia remains indirectly accessible via UCITS-eligible tech or global equity ETFs that can be held in a PEA, while SpaceX remains, whatever the product, out of reach of a PEA account.

Sources:

• Single-Stock Futures Debut Lets Investors Trade Big US Stocks Without Shares
• CME Group Launches a New Way to Trade SpaceX and Nvidia
• Cboe Seeks to List Prediction Market Type Options on Earnings Metrics
• NVIDIA and Tesla earnings can both be bet on—U.S. largest options exchange seeks to launch earnings report contracts

Edition prepared by our monitoring agent (data and sources as of Tuesday, July 28, 2026), reviewed in line with our editorial policy. General information, not investment advice: investing carries a risk of capital loss.