AI Markets: Anthropic’s prospectus and Starship in orbit

Anthropic’s prospectus reveals $518 billion in commitments and a $42 billion loss. Starship reaches orbit despite an engine failure, and OpenAI pushes back its IPO.

Anthropic: what the prospectus reveals ahead of the IPO

Anthropic’s draft prospectus has leaked, and the numbers are finally on the table. Exploding revenue, huge losses and $518 billion in commitments: here’s what you need to know.

The essentials:

  • According to Reuters, which reviewed the document, 2025 revenue reached nearly $4.6 billion (up 12x), with a net loss of about $42 billion.
  • About $34 billion of that loss is an accounting charge, not money spent running the business. The operating loss tops $8 billion.
  • Q2 2026 revenue reportedly hit $11.5 billion, versus $4.73 billion in Q1.
  • The company plans $518 billion in commitments for cloud, compute and infrastructure.

Fast growth, huge losses

Anthropic had already told investors it hit a $65 billion annualized run rate at the end of July. The prospectus now provides accounting figures. The Motley Fool notes that Q2 was up 14x year over year.

The $42 billion loss looks scary at first glance. But most of it comes from a revaluation of financing that can convert into shares. It’s an accounting effect tied to past funding rounds. The operating loss, a more telling figure, still tops $8 billion excluding depreciation. Compute and infrastructure spending reached $7.33 billion in 2025, and cash stood at $20.28 billion at the end of December (Reuters).

Very heavy commitments, loosely tied customers

Of the $518 billion, the Motley Fool counts about $110 billion with Amazon Web Services over ten years. Next come $30 billion of Microsoft Azure capacity, $50 billion in Fluidstack projects and the 5-gigawatt deal with Alphabet and Broadcom.

On the customer side, nearly a quarter of 2025 revenue came from just two customers. Anthropic also warns that many large customers don’t have long-term contracts and can cut their spending. Finally, the document mentions a “catastrophic or existential risk to humanity” tied to AI.

Amazon has invested $18 billion and reportedly owns about 7% of the company on paper. Its stake was worth about $190 billion on its books as of June 30 (Motley Fool). It’s the most direct bridge between Anthropic and the stock market today.

Timeline and access for a European investor

The document isn’t public on the SEC website yet. The public S-1 must be filed at least 15 days before the roadshow. The listing is expected after the U.S. elections in November, with a target valuation above $2 trillion according to several investors (not confirmed by Anthropic).

The listing is planned in the United States. U.S. stocks generally aren’t eligible for the PEA, but a regular securities account gives you access. None of this is advice: these are facts and press estimates.

Sources:

Starship reaches orbit: a success with an engine failure

On September 28, Starship reached orbit for the first time and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites. But one engine shut down along the way and the mission was cut short.

The essentials:

  • Starship reached orbit about 26 minutes after liftoff from Starbase (Texas), at 8:49 a.m. Eastern time.
  • One of the three “vacuum” Raptor engines shut down earlier than planned, but the mission continued.
  • All 26 Starlink V3 satellites were successfully deployed.
  • The flight lasted 3 hours 9 minutes instead of the planned 10 hours (six trips around the Earth).

What happened

After the engine shut down, SpaceX’s spokesperson first announced that the ship wouldn’t be able to reach orbit. A few minutes later, engineers confirmed it could still perform the key burn. And it did (Via Satellite).

The ship then splashed down in the North Pacific, about 6 hours 50 minutes earlier than planned. The trade outlet says most objectives were met. Each V3 satellite brings about 1 Tbit/s of capacity, or 26 Tbit/s for this flight (Light Reading and other trade outlets).

The bridge to the stock market

For SpaceX, the stakes are financial. A full load of V3 satellites adds as much capacity to Starlink as about 20 Falcon 9 flights with the current satellites (Motley Fool). Starlink is the group’s only profitable segment, according to its Q2 report.

For listed competitors, it’s a signal to watch. Rocket Lab gets about 25% of its revenue from launches ($108 million out of $434 million in the first half of 2026). Its launch backlog nearly doubled, from $476 million to $940 million as of June 30. Its stock trades at more than 40 times annualized revenue, and its Neutron rocket hasn’t flown yet (Motley Fool). The Motley Fool sees the risk in possible pressure on launch prices once Neutron arrives.

What we don’t know yet

The exact reaction of SpaceX stock (SPCX) and the technical cause of the engine shutdown aren’t detailed in the sources reviewed. The pace of upcoming flights will depend on the analysis of this failure. As for access, SPCX is listed on the Nasdaq, so it’s not PEA-eligible (securities account only). This article is for information only and isn’t advice.

Sources:

Nvidia is looking for insurers to cover its customers’ loans

Nvidia reportedly wants insurers to cover the losses if some customers fail to repay their loans. Loans that are used to buy… Nvidia chips.

The essentials:

  • According to the Financial Times, Nvidia is sounding out insurers to cover loan defaults by “neoclouds” (CoreWeave, Core Scientific, Nscale, Lambda).
  • Talks are at an early stage and no deal has been finalized.
  • The amount is reportedly “enormous,” beyond the capacity of any single insurer.
  • Critics see it as “vendor financing,” like during the dot-com bubble.

How it would work

A neocloud is a young cloud player specializing in AI. It borrows to buy chips, then rents out their computing power. The chips serve as collateral for the loan.

If the neocloud defaults, the lender takes back the chips. But they lose value fast. The insurer would pay the difference if reselling them doesn’t cover the debt (Bisnow, citing the FT). To spread such a large risk, the plan calls for sharing it with hedge funds and other investors.

Why it matters for the stock market

The FT had already counted more than $11 billion in loans made to neoclouds by asset managers such as BlackRock, Blackstone, Pimco and Carlyle, backed by Nvidia chips (via Business Insider). Lenders are hesitant because the chips depreciate quickly.

Nvidia already carries other guarantees. In its quarterly report, the company disclosed a maximum residual value guarantee of $105 billion tied to OpenAI’s Ohio campus (see our September 2 edition). So the issue weighs on the debate around “circular financing”: the supplier helps its customers pay it. Supporters of the arrangement see it as a way to unlock demand. Critics counter that the risk stays inside the ecosystem if demand slows.

For a European investor, Nvidia is accessible through UCITS ETFs (world, Nasdaq-100, semiconductors). These facts are for information only and aren’t advice.

Sources:

OpenAI pushes back its IPO and seeks $30 billion at $1.4 trillion

OpenAI won’t go public this year. According to Bloomberg, it’s preparing to raise at least $30 billion to tide it over until then.

The essentials:

  • Bloomberg reports (September 29) that OpenAI is seeking at least $30 billion at a valuation of about $1.4 trillion, before the new money.
  • Sam Altman says the IPO won’t happen in 2026, citing AI safety concerns.
  • The last round was in March: $122 billion at $852 billion.
  • The annualized revenue run rate tops $40 billion, up 70% since July according to Bloomberg.

What’s changed since our last edition

On September 18, the WSJ reported a target valuation of $1.2 trillion and a listing pushed back to 2027. The figure is now up to $1.4 trillion, about 64% more than the March valuation. This time, the decision to delay the IPO comes from a statement by Altman himself, reported by CoinDesk.

The raise is seen as a “bridge” to a listing in 2027 at the earliest (Blockhead). The amount and the valuation remain press reports: OpenAI hasn’t confirmed them in the sources reviewed.

The bridge to the stock market

Two products were announced alongside: an always-on AI agent called Dots, and a $500 subscription. Both aim to boost revenue ahead of the listing.

The contrast with Anthropic is stark. Anthropic reported $65 billion in annualized revenue at the end of July and is aiming for a November listing. OpenAI, for its part, is choosing to stay private longer. For an investor, that means Anthropic could be the first major generative AI company to go public, while OpenAI remains accessible only indirectly (Microsoft, Nvidia, SoftBank): those stocks trade on U.S. or Japanese exchanges, rarely in a PEA.

Nothing here is advice: these are press reports, to be read with caution.

Sources:

TSMC is weighing an investment in Texas

TSMC is reportedly eyeing a new site in the United States, this time in Texas. It would come on top of the $265 billion already planned in Arizona.

The essentials:

  • According to Reuters (September 30), TSMC is evaluating an investment in Texas.
  • The plans aren’t finalized, according to anonymous sources.
  • The board hasn’t approved the project and suppliers haven’t been notified.
  • It would come on top of the $265 billion announced for Arizona.

What we know

In July, TSMC added $100 billion to its Arizona plan, bringing the total to $265 billion. CEO C.C. Wei talked about “four or more” additional plants, covering fabrication and advanced packaging. The Phoenix site is eventually expected to include 12 fabs, advanced packaging facilities and an R&D center (Yahoo Finance).

No date or amount has been confirmed for Texas. A local U.S. outlet mentions six fabs near Dallas, but that detail hasn’t been confirmed by TSMC or Reuters.

The bridge to the stock market

Demand for AI chips is the driver TSMC itself cites for its Arizona expansion. A Texas site would extend that logic.

First, it remains to be seen whether the project will be approved, then how TSMC will fund it. No cost figure has been given at this stage.

TSMC is listed in Taiwan and through U.S. ADRs. In Europe, it’s mostly accessible through broad UCITS ETFs (world, emerging markets, semiconductors). This information isn’t advice.

Sources:

Edition prepared by our monitoring agent (data and sources as of Thursday, October 1, 2026), reviewed according to our editorial policy. General information, not investment advice: investing carries a risk of capital loss.