AI Markets: Terafab, Anthropic’s IPO, Oracle Jupiter

TSMC is in talks with Musk, Anthropic and OpenAI pick their own IPO timing, and power constraints slow down an Oracle giant. All through a European investor’s lens, with no advice.

Terafab: TSMC talks with Musk as Tesla trims Optimus’s memory

Elon Musk has confirmed talks with TSMC about his chip fab project in Texas. Two days earlier, he admitted the memory shortage was forcing him to scale back the chips in his robots.

The essentials:

  • On October 2, Bloomberg columnist Tim Culpan reported that TSMC is exploring a role in Terafab, according to Teslanorth.
  • Musk replied on X: “Just discussions, but something may come of it.”
  • Terafab would be a $16.8 billion project in Grimes County, Texas, bringing together Tesla, SpaceX and Intel, according to Teslanorth. Nothing has been signed.
  • On October 1, Musk announced that the AI5 chip is dropping from 144 to 72 GB of memory, and the AI6 from 216 to 144 GB.

What’s changed since our last edition

On September 30, Reuters reported that TSMC was looking at an investment in Texas, on top of the $265 billion planned for Arizona. The plans weren’t finalized. What’s new: a name is now attached to that potential Texas project, and it’s Musk’s. Talks remain “early,” with no amount or ownership structure settled.

One big caveat. In April, TSMC CEO C.C. Wei pointed out that there are “no shortcuts” in the foundry business, according to TrendForce. Building a fab takes 2 to 3 years, followed by 1 to 2 years of ramp-up. Musk is targeting the start of production around 2029.

Why memory matters for Optimus

Musk says these cuts are “the only way to get enough volume” for Optimus. He cites global DRAM production of roughly 45 billion GB a year. According to him, the impact on performance will be negligible, because bandwidth matters more than capacity. That claim comes from Musk himself and hasn’t been verified.

The market link: humanoid robots run into the same bottlenecks as AI, namely chips and memory. See our edition on Micron and HBM memory.

As for access, Tesla and TSMC (as an ADR) trade outside a PEA, through a regular securities account. Tech or semiconductor UCITS ETFs offer indirect exposure. This is information, not advice.

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Anthropic and OpenAI are going public on their own schedule

The US market for initial public offerings (IPOs) is cooling. The two big AI labs, though, can pick their date thanks to massive private funding rounds.

The essentials:

  • Anthropic filed a confidential registration (S-1) with the SEC on June 1, after raising $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation.
  • According to the Wall Street Journal, as picked up by several outlets, the goal is a Nasdaq listing in November. The public filing isn’t visible on EDGAR yet.
  • OpenAI raised $122 billion in March, is seeking at least $30 billion more at around $1.4 trillion, and has ruled out an IPO in 2026.
  • Only “the top two or three” can afford it, says analyst Luke Lango (opinion).

Where Anthropic’s timeline stands

A confidential filing stays out of sight. The company has to make its prospectus public at least 15 days before its investor roadshow. As of now, no public S-1 from Anthropic shows up on EDGAR, according to Forkast. Media reports point to a target valuation of around $2 trillion and up to $100 billion raised. The company hasn’t confirmed those figures.

Why the window is closing for everyone else

According to Benzinga, 10-year US yields are above 5%. Several companies have postponed or pulled their listings. AI labs spend far more on compute than a private round can fund for long, according to Lango. Public markets offer both capital and debt for data centers.

For a European saver: neither Anthropic nor OpenAI is accessible today, whether through a PEA or a UCITS fund. A US listing would require a regular securities account. Information, not advice.

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Oracle and Project Jupiter: power is the new data center bottleneck

Oracle sent a “force majeure” notice on a giant campus in New Mexico. The problem isn’t demand, it’s gas and permits.

The essentials:

  • The Project Jupiter campus (2.45 GW) is being developed for Oracle by STACK Infrastructure, a Blue Owl subsidiary. It’s part of the roughly $400 billion Stargate deal with OpenAI and SoftBank.
  • The notice lets Oracle defer payments if the 2028 opening is missed.
  • $18 billion in debt, held by around twenty banks, is trading below 90 cents on the dollar.
  • Oracle calls it a “precautionary” step: the project remains “on schedule.”

A site powered by on-site gas

The campus is supposed to run on Bloom Energy fuel cells powered by natural gas. The planned pipeline was rejected twice by the state land office, in March and July, according to AI Weekly. Its start date has slipped by nearly six months, to February 1, 2027. Two permits are still pending: the pipeline and air quality.

How the market reacted

The news knocked Oracle and Blue Owl down about 4% and Bloom 6%. Then Oracle reaffirmed its 2.4 GW contract with Bloom: the stock bounced 8% to $288.77 on September 25, according to 24/7 Wall St.

The tech→market link: the AI bubble debate is shifting from demand to energy and debt. Oracle and Bloom are listed in the US, so outside a PEA. Information, not advice.

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Humanoid robots: why retail investors struggle to get in

The robotics boom is making plenty of noise. But most players aren’t listed, and the products offered to savers are expensive.

The essentials:

  • Euronews notes that most robot startups remain private.
  • About 7,000 humanoids were sold for professional use in 2025, compared with 603,000 industrial robots installed.
  • Robotics startups had raised $18.8 billion by mid-June 2026.
  • Tesla is the most visible listed option, but cars still dominate: $20.5 billion out of $28.2 billion in revenue in Q2 2026.

The options, and their limits

Tesla trades at 165 times expected earnings, versus less than 10 for European automakers, according to Euronews. Musk says 80% of the value will one day come from Optimus: that’s his vision, not a fact. Fanuc gets 44% of its sales from robots, ABB 7 to 10%. KUKA left the stock market in 2022.

The RoboStrategy fund (Nasdaq: BOT) was trading at $27.34 against a net asset value of $11.35 in August. Its annual fees run about 4%. Euronews points out that a comparable fund, Destiny Tech100, lost 71% in four days when the premium vanished.

UCITS ETFs

For Europeans, thematic UCITS ETFs do exist. The KraneShares KOID, listed in London, targets humanoids. Three humanoid products hold about $120 million in combined assets, including $74 million for KraneShares, according to the trade press. General robotics ETFs, such as iShares Automation & Robotics or L&G ROBO, are broader. Always check the fees and actual holdings: information, not advice.

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SpaceX at $158: retail investors sell despite Starship reaching orbit

Starship made it to orbit, but SPCX stock closed at $158 on October 2, about 30% below its peak. The new development: a wave of retail selling.

The essentials:

  • According to JP Morgan, retail investors sold $570 million in shares over three weeks in September, including the largest weekly outflow the bank has ever recorded.
  • On September 24, 328 million shares were unlocked for insiders.
  • The stock trades at about 60 times revenue, according to Yahoo Finance UK.
  • Musk says he’s renaming SpaceXAI to SpaceXSI (“super intelligence”).

What’s changed since our last edition

We had covered Flight 14 and the lockup expirations. The new number is about flows: the bulk of the selling comes from retail investors, not just insiders. The stock was at $225.64 at its June peak and $135 at the IPO. Analyst targets remain far off: about $222 on average, with $142 the lowest cited by Yahoo.

The fundamentals cited by Yahoo: $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 and a $4.9 billion net loss. So the stock is falling despite a technical milestone, which points to a sentiment and flows story, according to the article.

The rename

Musk confirmed SpaceXSI after a user’s suggestion, on the heels of a Donald Trump executive order encouraging agencies to talk about “super intelligence.” It has no known direct financial impact.

SPCX is listed on the Nasdaq: outside a PEA, regular securities account only. Information, not advice.

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Edition prepared by our monitoring agent (data and sources as of Monday, October 5, 2026), reviewed in line with our editorial policy. General information, not investment advice: investing carries a risk of capital loss.