ASML says AI demand is outrunning its production capacity. Anthropic opens its books to investors, while Starlink gets throttled in Ukraine.
ASML raises its guidance: AI demand outruns production capacity
ASML builds the machines without which no advanced chip exists. Its October 14 results confirm that AI-driven demand exceeds what the company can produce.
The key points:
- Q3 sales: €11.66 billion (a record), up from €9.33 billion the previous quarter.
- Net income: €4.96 billion; gross margin: 57.5%.
- 2026 guidance: €44 billion to €45 billion in sales, gross margin of about 56%.
- Q4 guidance: €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion in sales.
What has changed since our last edition
On October 13, we were expecting these numbers in a range of €11 billion to €12 billion. The result landed near the top of the range, according to CEO Christophe Fouquet.
The real news is elsewhere. The company writes that its supply “as planned for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet demand.” So it is studying a capacity increase in 2028, on top of the +30% already announced.
Another signal: some customers already want to place orders for 2029 and even 2030, according to the press release. ASML does not publish an orders (bookings) figure in the text we reviewed.
The link to the stock market
For the market, the question is no longer “does the demand exist?” but “how long will it last?” ASML’s orders lead chip sales by two to three years.
The stock’s reaction was mixed. According to Stocktwits, shares fell despite the raised guidance because Q3 revenue reportedly came in below some expectations, and the decline spread to other names like Micron and Intel. We could not confirm the exact size of the move.
For a European saver, ASML is listed in Amsterdam and remains eligible for the PEA. This is not a recommendation: it is one entry point, among others, into the chip supply chain.
Sources:
- ASML reports €11.7 billion total net sales and €5.0 billion net income in Q3 2026 (Yahoo Finance)
- ASML raises 2026 sales outlook on soaring AI demand (Investing.com via Yahoo Finance)
- ASML raises sales forecast a third time, Q3 revenue miss sends stock lower (Stocktwits)
Anthropic shows its Q3 numbers to investors ahead of the IPO
Anthropic is presenting its third-quarter numbers to investors on Wednesday, October 14. It’s a first. The public, for its part, hasn’t seen the numbers yet.
The key points:
- Presentation to potential investors, reported by Bloomberg and then CNBC, with no comment from Anthropic.
- The Q3 numbers are not public; the S-1 filing remains confidential.
- A listing as early as mid-November and a hoped-for valuation of around $2 trillion have been floated: nothing is confirmed.
- Watch point: how revenue is defined.
What changes since our last edition
We had flagged the October 14 investor day and the absence of a public S-1. It is now happening. Before it, the latest benchmarks date from August: Bloomberg cited annualized revenue above $65 billion at the end of July and more than $11.5 billion in preliminary Q2 revenue.
A copy of the S-1 cited by Reuters (via Yahoo Finance) showed 2025 revenue of about $4.6 billion, up 12-fold.
The touchy subject: counting revenue
Investors want to know whether Anthropic counts sales made through its cloud partners as revenue. The debate stems from the revision of OpenAI’s numbers, according to CNBC. Two companies can both announce “10” and be talking about different things.
The link to the stock market
The May valuation was $965 billion after a $65 billion raise. An IPO at around $2 trillion would double that benchmark, an unconfirmed scenario. The IPO would serve as a test for the entire chain: chips, memory, data centers.
For European savers, no shares are listed as of today. Synthetic products exist, such as the 21shares ETP, but they are not shares and they are not UCITS.
Sources:
- Anthropic to disclose new revenue numbers as AI lab financials become central to tech trade (CNBC)
- Anthropic to share Q3 financials with investors amid growing AI valuation concerns (Invezz)
- Anthropic reportedly looking to IPO as early as mid-November (Yahoo Finance)
- Anthropic’s annualized revenue tops $65 billion before IPO (Bloomberg Government)
Starlink throttled in Ukraine: the political risk of a pricey asset
Ukrainian officials say SpaceX has restricted the military’s use of Starlink. SpaceX hasn’t said a word. For a shareholder, the episode goes to the heart of the company’s value.
The key points:
- According to Reuters, an adviser to the Ukrainian presidency says SpaceX limited Starlink operations, disrupting military missions.
- Another adviser, Serhii Sternenko, says the connection drops above 160 km/h.
- He suggests SpaceX acted at the request of the Trump administration: that is his hypothesis, unconfirmed.
- No comment from SpaceX in the sources we reviewed.
What we know, and what we don’t
The sources disagree on who is speaking: Reuters cites a presidential adviser, while Yahoo/Investing.com describes Mr. Sternenko as an adviser to the Defense Ministry. Both talk about missions disrupted without warning.
Ordinary civilian terminals reportedly remain operational, according to Mr. Sternenko. These are statements from a single source, with no independent verification.
The link to the stock market
Starlink is SpaceX’s only profitable segment: about 570,000 net subscribers a month in Q2, or 1.7 million over the quarter, according to the Motley Fool. Average revenue per subscriber is $66 a month, down from $85 a year earlier.
The Fool values the company at around $2.2 trillion as of October 12. At that level, part of the price rests on government and military contracts. Any political decision, one way or the other, weighs on that story.
SpaceX is not eligible for the PEA: only a regular securities account (compte-titres) gives access to it.
Sources:
- SpaceX limits Starlink operations in Ukraine, disrupting military missions, presidential aide says (Reuters via ThePrint)
- Starlink restricted Ukrainian military connectivity, Zelensky adviser says (Yahoo)
- Starlink is adding 570,000 subscribers a month (The Motley Fool)
Nvidia takes stakes in Doctolib and three other French startups
Nvidia is no longer just selling chips to Europe: it’s buying pieces of companies there. Four French startups are involved.
The key points:
- Minority stakes in Doctolib, Genesis AI, Pigment and Entalpic.
- Amounts, valuations and percentages: not disclosed.
- Nvidia says it has committed nearly $10 billion to the European tech ecosystem.
- Doctolib and Genesis AI confirmed; Pigment and Entalpic, revealed by Les Echos, had not responded to Reuters.
What each company does
Doctolib builds AI agents for healthcare professionals. Genesis AI develops general-purpose robots. Pigment makes planning software for businesses. Entalpic speeds up materials research, notably for semiconductors.
Doctolib says the investment will help it develop AI tools. According to a secondary report, its CEO talks about in-house models running on Nvidia chips, to keep control over health data; we could not confirm this at the source.
The link to the stock market
For Nvidia, it’s a way to lock its chips in with future customers, the same logic already seen with its portfolio of stakes. Our September 7 edition had already touched on it.
For European savers, none of these four companies is listed: you can’t buy them on the stock market, or in a PEA. The signal lies elsewhere: American capital is hunting for French AI assets ahead of a possible IPO.
The announcement comes ahead of Jensen Huang’s keynote in Berlin, scheduled for October 21, according to Nvidia.
Sources:
- NVIDIA Announces New Investments in France’s Startups (Nvidia)
- Nvidia buys stakes in French tech startups Doctolib, Genesis AI (Reuters via The Star)
- Nvidia buys stakes in Doctolib, Genesis AI (Tech Insider)
Edition prepared by our monitoring agent (data and sources as of Wednesday, October 14, 2026), reviewed in line with our editorial policy. General information, not investment advice: investing carries a risk of capital loss.