Anthropic reveals its numbers ahead of its IPO, TSMC breaks its records, and yet chips are collapsing in Asia. Here’s what you need to know from this mixed day.
Anthropic reveals $16.8 billion in Q3 revenue, its big pitch before going public
Anthropic presented its third-quarter numbers to investors in San Francisco. The data isn’t public: it comes from people who attended the meeting, as reported by the press.
The key points:
- Q3 revenue: $16.8 billion, up 45% from the previous quarter (about $11.6 billion according to CNBC; $11.5 billion according to other outlets).
- Anthropic says it was profitable on an “adjusted” basis in Q3, a metric chosen by the company, not an audited accounting result.
- A listing is targeted as early as the week of November 9, with a valuation floated between $1.8 trillion and $2 trillion (Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance).
- The public S-1 (the official prospectus) hasn’t been filed yet.
What’s changed since our last edition
Yesterday, we wrote that the Q3 numbers weren’t public. Now they’re leaking. The thing to watch is the pace: growth is still very strong, but it’s slowing. The Information and several other outlets describe growth as “rapid but decelerating.” Will investors pay $2 trillion for a curve that’s flattening? That’s the question analysts are now chewing on.
Our benchmark: the company reported more than $11.5 billion for Q2. So Q3 adds roughly $5 billion in a single quarter. The numbers remain unaudited, and the definition of “revenue” (whether or not it includes the cloud partners’ share) weighs on the comparison.
The bridge to the markets
For a European investor, access will be indirect at first: a US listing, meaning a dollar-denominated stock, outside standard accounts like the PEA. You’ll have to wait for brokers and ETFs. Another signal to watch: analysts surveyed by Bloomberg think these results could help the IPO, but not the AI market as a whole. The same day, tech stocks fell sharply (see below).
Sources:
- Anthropic’s third-quarter revenue is said to hit $16.8 billion ahead of IPO – CNBC
- Anthropic Revenue Hits $16.8 Billion in Quarter Before IPO – Bloomberg
- Anthropic Reports $16.8 billion in Third-Quarter Revenue – The Information
- Anthropic Hits $16.8B Revenue Ahead Of Planned Holiday Listing – Yahoo Finance
- Anthropic’s Q3 Revenue Surged 45% to $16.8 Billion – Benzinga
TSMC: record Q3 profit and solid guidance, but the stock is under pressure
TSMC, the foundry that manufactures chips for Nvidia, Apple and AMD, posted its sixth straight quarter of record profit. The market, for its part, was mostly watching the margin and the guidance.
The key points:
- Q3 net profit: NT$763.06 billion (up 68.7% year over year), above the expected NT$746.3 billion (LSEG).
- Gross margin: 66.4%, within the announced range of 65% to 67%, slightly below analyst expectations.
- Q4 guidance: $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion in revenue, with a gross margin of 65% to 67%.
- High-performance computing (HPC) accounts for 68% of revenue; 3 nm makes up 33% of wafers and 2 nm 8%.
What’s changed since our last edition
On October 8, we had the September sales and a consensus estimate. The full results confirm it: revenue of $46.7 billion beats the July guidance range ($44.6 billion to $45.8 billion). Net margin reaches 51.1%, versus 55.6% in Q2, a quarter inflated by a one-time gain. The 2 nm ramp-up is weighing on margins, as management predicted.
The bridge to the markets
These numbers land in the middle of a rough session for chips: TSMC’s ADR had lost 3.4% the day before, to $430, ahead of the release (AskTraders). One analyst quoted believes it will take “more than just a positive surprise” to reverse the trend. The figures above come from a single outlet; they should be cross-checked against TSMC’s press release. We found no confirmation on capex or on the Texas site project mentioned by Reuters on September 30.
For European savers, TSMC mostly shows up through UCITS ETFs on semiconductors or emerging markets: the exposure then comes from the index weighting, not a direct bet.
Sources:
- TSMC Posts Record Profit and Beats Guidance as Chip Rout Hits Shares – AskTraders
- TSMC Q3 Revenue Beats Forecasts at Record NT$1.49 Trillion – TrendForce
- TSMC’s Q3 Earnings Preview – TIKR / Yahoo Finance
- TSMC Q3 Revenue Tops Its Own Guidance – Yahoo Finance
Starlink in Ukraine: Musk passes the speed limit buck to Washington
Since the night of October 13 to 14, Ukraine says its drones have been disrupted by a speed limit on Starshield terminals, the military version of Starlink. Elon Musk responded on the 15th.
The key points:
- Kyiv says the terminals lose their connection above 160 km/h, without warning.
- Musk writes that Starshield systems are “owned and controlled by the US government” and that the limits are set by the US military and “ultimately” by the president (quoted by CNBC and IBTimes).
- US officials have denied any involvement, according to IBTimes.
- According to CNBC, some restrictions were partially lifted on Thursday; Kyiv wants them removed entirely.
What’s changed since our last edition
Yesterday, Ukrainian advisers were still blaming Washington, with no comment from SpaceX. Now there’s a public statement from Musk, but the accounts clash: the company points to the US government, which denies it. So the facts aren’t established. We don’t know who decided on the limit.
The bridge to the markets
For SpaceX, listed since the summer, the stakes are the weight of defense in its business model. Starshield is a contract with the US government; a falling-out with a Washington ally could hurt the group’s image, especially in Europe, where officials are questioning their dependence on Starlink. No quantified impact on the stock has been established at this point. Next dates to watch: the FCC vote on October 29 and Q3 results in mid-November.
Sources:
- Elon Musk says Trump is ‘ultimately’ responsible for any curbs on Ukraine’s Starshield systems – CNBC
- Ukraine says Musk’s SpaceX is restricting its Starlink military use – Forbes
- ‘This cannot be a coincidence’ – Kyiv Independent
- Ukraine Says SpaceX Limits Starlink Speeds – IBTimes UK
- Elon Musk blames Trump, US military for SpaceX restrictions – Fox News
Chip crash: hot inflation, a circuit breaker in Korea and AI under pressure
Hotter-than-expected US inflation sent tech stocks tumbling on October 14. The wave hit Asia on the 15th, with the Seoul stock exchange halted by a circuit breaker.
The key points:
- September inflation in the US: up 3.7% year over year, versus 3.6% expected; excluding food and energy, up 2.6% (Yahoo Finance).
- Wall Street on October 14: S&P 500 down 1.0%, Nasdaq down 1.9%, Nvidia down about 3.5%.
- In Seoul, the Kospi lost more than 7% on Thursday and trading was suspended for 20 minutes (Korea Times; the exact size of the drop varies by outlet).
- Rates: according to Yahoo Finance, the odds of a Fed hike in October jumped, while 78% of investors had expected no change before the release.
Why AI is taking a hit
AI stocks run on credit and cheap money. When inflation revives talk of a rate hike, financing data centers gets more expensive. Several outlets link the drop to fears about the sustainability of AI debt, with CoreWeave on the front line. Analysts quoted by Bloomberg also believe Anthropic’s results could help its IPO, but not the sector as a whole.
The bridge for European savers
UCITS semiconductor ETFs and Korea ETFs are taking the drop in real time. This isn’t a forecast: the Kospi has already lost more than 40% since its June record, according to the outlets cited. Next markers: the Fed decision and Meta’s results on October 21.
Sources:
- Stock market today: Hot inflation report drops tech – Yahoo Finance
- Tech rout triggers trading halt for KOSPI stocks – Korea Times
- Asia stocks tumble as KOSPI triggers circuit breaker – Investing.com
- South Korea’s Kospi index sinks more than 7% – NBC News
Edition prepared by our monitoring agent (data and sources as of Thursday, October 15, 2026), reviewed according to our editorial policy. General information, not investment advice: investing carries a risk of capital loss.