Anthropic’s investors are lowering their expectations ahead of the IPO, and the cost of insuring CoreWeave’s debt hits a record. Tesla unveils a Roadster with SpaceX thrusters while the merger stirs debate.

Anthropic: the IPO could come at $1.5 trillion, not $2 trillion

Investors are reportedly discussing a valuation of around $1.5 trillion for Anthropic’s IPO, planned for November. That’s about $500 billion less than the figure floating around until now, according to Reuters. Nothing is set.

Key points:

• According to Reuters (via Investing.com), the figure comes from current and prospective investors, following Wednesday’s “investor day” in San Francisco.
• Anthropic reported Q3 revenue of $16.8 billion, up 45% from Q2 ($11.6 billion), and a positive “adjusted” profit.
• Some investors are disappointed by growth, which is slowing quarter over quarter: Q2 had more than doubled from Q1.
• This is not a company announcement: the price range has not been published.

What has changed since our last edition

We had covered the $16.8 billion in Q3 revenue. What’s new is how investors are taking it. Growth of 45% in a single quarter is still very strong. But when a stock is gearing up for a $2 trillion debut, the market compares it to its previous pace, not to a “normal” company.

Reuters adds a second factor: the broad slide in tech stocks, which is hitting chips, AI infrastructure and “neoclouds.” Anthropic has also committed to spending at least $518 billion over ten years on cloud and compute. For 2025, the company reported revenue of about $4.6 billion (12x) and an operating loss of more than $8 billion, excluding certain accounting charges.

The bridge to the market

An IPO valuation sets the price at which the public buys in. If it comes down, the entry price for new shareholders comes down too, but that says nothing about where the stock will go next. A poorly received IPO could also weigh on OpenAI’s, expected in early 2027 according to several media outlets.

For a European saver: if the listing happens in the United States, the stock will in principle be available through a standard brokerage account (compte-titres), not through a PEA. UCITS ETFs exposed to US tech won’t feel a direct effect until any eventual inclusion in the indexes.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Sources:

• Some investors push Anthropic to cut IPO valuation to $1.5 trillion (Investing.com, citing Reuters)
• Anthropic’s $2 Trillion IPO Dream Meets a $1.5 Trillion Reality Check (Yahoo Finance)
• Anthropic Investors Reassess IPO Valuation Amid Slower Revenue Growth (KuCoin)
• Anthropic Valuation May Fall to $1.5 Trillion as Growth Slows (Seoul Economic Daily)

CoreWeave: the cost of insuring its debt hits a record

CoreWeave’s five-year “CDS” topped 1,000 basis points on Thursday. The stock had plunged 15% the day before. The neocloud is growing fast but funding that growth with debt.

Key points:

• The 5-year CDS hit 1,038 basis points midday Thursday, a record, according to the Motley Fool (up 164% over one year).
• Debt and lease obligations: about $51 billion. Net loss of $626 million last quarter ($290 million a year earlier).
• Capital expenditures of $6.4 billion and free cash flow of -$5.7 billion; revenue of $2.58 billion (more than double) and a backlog of $104 billion.
• Three co-founders have sold $3.3 billion in stock since the March 2025 IPO, including $2.4 billion in 2026 (Bloomberg, via Investing.com).

What a CDS measures

A CDS is insurance against a borrower defaulting. The more it costs, the riskier the market thinks the borrower is. At 1,038 basis points, insuring $1 million of debt costs about $103,800 a year. Above 1,000, the situation is generally described as “stressed.” The Motley Fool notes that a high CDS doesn’t guarantee a default.

According to Investing.com, the move followed an interview with the Financial Times in which co-founder Brannin McBee talked about “unlimited” capital coming from insurers. The stock lost 15% on Wednesday, then bounced back slightly on Thursday.

The tech → market bridge

CoreWeave rents out Nvidia chips to AI customers. Its stock therefore works as a thermometer for financing across the whole sector. We had already noted that Nvidia was sounding out insurers to cover neocloud loans. Now it’s the credit market doing the talking.

The co-founders’ sales are legal and disclosed. They prove nothing about their intentions, but they feed the debate. Their stake has lost more than 60% of its value since the peak, according to Investing.com.

On the European side, CoreWeave is listed on the Nasdaq: brokerage account (compte-titres), no PEA. UCITS ETFs focused on semiconductors or AI infrastructure may hold a small slice of it; check their holdings.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Sources:

• CoreWeave’s Debt Insurance Costs Just Hit a Record (The Motley Fool)
• CoreWeave three co-founders sold $3.3 billion in shares since IPO (Investing.com via Yahoo Finance)

Tesla-SpaceX: a “flying” Roadster and a merger scenario before December

On Thursday, Tesla unveiled its Roadster with thrusters designed with SpaceX. The same day, Barclays said a Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement was possible before the annual shareholder meeting. Nothing is confirmed.

Key points:

• Roadster: three versions, two of them with cold-gas thrusters (“Thrust,” limited edition; “Rocket,” single-seat, not street-legal). Elon Musk says production will start in 2028.
• Barclays (Dan Levy, note dated October 14): an announcement could come before Tesla’s shareholder meeting, which must take place by December 6.
• Barclays’ estimate: about 0.7 SpaceX share for each Tesla share. That’s an analyst’s assumption, not an offer.
• Neither Tesla nor SpaceX has announced or filed anything.

What has changed

We covered the merger rumor this summer, when prediction markets had it at around 50%. Today, according to 24/7 Wall St., bettors give it a 24% chance of an official announcement by December 31. So the scenario is getting more airtime from analysts than from bettors.

Barclays sees the main appeal in AI, manufacturing and infrastructure, with the joint chip project “Terafab.” The hurdles are still many: special board committees, a shareholder vote, antitrust review, national security issues. SpaceX’s market cap ($2.07 trillion) exceeds Tesla’s ($1.45 trillion), again according to 24/7 Wall St.

The bridge to the market

The Roadster is mostly a technical showcase. According to Yahoo Finance, the base version requires a $50,000 deposit and doesn’t come with the thrusters. Tesla has already pushed this model back many times. As for Tesla, Q2 remains weak: adjusted EPS of $0.33 versus $0.54 expected.

For a European saver, Tesla and SpaceX are listed in the United States: brokerage account (compte-titres), not eligible for a PEA. A potential merger would change the makeup of ETFs that hold both stocks.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Sources:

• Barclays Says a Tesla-SpaceX Merger Could Be Announced Before December (24/7 Wall St.)
• AI could drive a Tesla-SpaceX tie-up as soon as this fall, analysts say (Axios)
• Tesla-SpaceX Deal News Possible This Year, Barclays Analyst Says (Bloomberg)
• Elon Musk Unveils Tesla Roadster (Yahoo Finance)

Taiwan: moving toward tighter limits on AI chips bound for China

Taiwan is reportedly considering much tougher export controls on AI chips headed to China, to align with the United States. At the same time, the island is preparing industrial parks in Texas.

Key points:

• According to Bloomberg (via Investing.com), Taiwan is studying stricter rules. This is still under consideration, with no rule adopted and no date.
• The target: AI servers equipped with Nvidia chips that get diverted to China.
• Taiwan plans industrial parks in the United States, up to $4 billion each, starting with Texas.
• TSMC has pledged $265 billion in US investments, according to Investing.com.

Cracking down on smuggling

Advanced chips are already banned from sale to China without a US license. But Investing.com points out that they still get there through channels in Southeast Asia. A US Justice Department case targets Super Micro employees over the smuggling of at least $2.5 billion in Nvidia chips; a co-founder has been arrested. Nvidia employees in Taiwan are also named in a similar case.

Taiwan therefore wants to give authorities more legal tools. Beijing is said to oppose this, and Investing.com flags the risk of fresh anger from China. An early version of the plan had been reported by Bloomberg in June, according to Newsquawk.

The bridge to the market

Economy Minister Kung Ming-hsin told Bloomberg on October 12 that the parks project would start with a site in Texas. The idea: help small Taiwanese suppliers set up in the United States. Funding would come from the electronics manufacturers’ association, with government loan guarantees. Foxconn and Wistron are also expanding their US plants.

For investors, two things to watch: Nvidia’s access to the Chinese market, already shrinking according to our previous edition, and the geographic spread of the supply chain. TSMC is listed in Taiwan and as an ADR in the United States, not directly eligible for a PEA.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Sources:

• Taiwan to curb AI chip sales to China (Investing.com via Yahoo Finance)
• Taiwan plans $4 bln Texas park to support Nvidia’s AI supply chain (Investing.com via Yahoo Finance)
• Taiwan said to be mulling curbs on AI chip exports to China (Newsquawk)

Edition prepared by our news-monitoring agent (data and sources as of Friday, October 16, 2026), reviewed in line with our editorial policy. General information, not investment advice: investing carries a risk of capital loss.